Bring 2 peaking gensets online 17:00-22:00 Friday

Auto-generated from DLPA agents based on the prior 24-hour signal window.


Predictive maintenance on 11 Klang Valley transformers

Auto-generated from APMA agents based on the prior 24-hour signal window.


Defer Sabah substation capex by 9 months

Auto-generated from APPA, FSCA agents based on the prior 24-hour signal window.


Auto-generated from DLPA, FSCA agents based on the prior 24-hour signal window.


Auto-generated from APPA agents based on the prior 24-hour signal window.


Demand profile flat at 16.2 GW with MET 7-day forecast showing thunderstorm activity Wed-Thu cooling ambient by 2.4 C. Hold genset commitment for 48 hours pending Thursday 10:00 dispatch review.

Friday 19:00 peak forecast 18.4 GW breaches 17.8 GW reserve-margin floor

ToU peak window (14:00-22:00 weekdays at RM 0.524/kWh) coincides with MET ambient peak. Demand model (LSTM trained on 14 years of Klang Valley load) projects 18.4 GW with 92% CI 18.1-18.7 GW. Without peaking, reserve margin drops to -600 MW triggering automatic load-shed protocol per Grid Code Section 4.7.

MET Malaysia 7-day: 36.8 C ambient peak Friday, heat-index 41 C - heat advisory active

AC penetration in KL/Selangor at 89% household saturation - 1 C above 32 C adds 280 MW

ToU peak tariff RM 0.524/kWh vs off-peak RM 0.224/kWh - no price-response headroom left

Grid Code 4.7 mandates load-shed if N-1 reserve falls below 17.8 GW floor

Issue dispatch instruction to Pasir Gudang OCGT (220 MW) and Putrajaya CCGT GT-2 (180 MW) by 14:00 Thursday

Pre-arm 142 industrial demand-response customers as N-2 backup

Notify ST Grid Operations Division per IBR Rule 12.3

If MET storm forecast fails (28% historical bust rate on 5-day outlook), demand could spike to 17.6 GW by Friday with insufficient ramp time. Decision review locked for Thursday 10:00.

Demand LSTM forecast vs reserve margin floor

Gas + hydro stack delivers RM 8.4M net vs full demand-response curtailment

Marginal cost stack: Pasir Gudang OCGT at RM 412/MWh, Putrajaya CCGT at RM 287/MWh, vs demand-response curtailment compensation of RM 1,840/MWh. 5-hour dispatch window (17:00-22:00) at 400 MW combined yields RM 8.4M avoided cost. Bakun hydro held as spinning reserve at zero marginal.

Petronas gas nomination: 612 mmscfd against 638 mmscfd request (gap 26 mmscfd)

Bakun reservoir 78% full, 6,400 GWh available - 2,400 MW dispatch headroom

Coal stockpile (Manjung, Janamanjung): 18 days at full load - no constraint

OCGT marginal cost RM 412/MWh vs DR curtailment RM 1,840/MWh = RM 1,428/MWh saving

Petronas IFC gas allocation reviewed Wed 06:00 - no curtailment flag issued

Lock gas nomination by Thursday 18:00 deadline (Petronas IFC Rule 5.2)

Hold Bakun at 1,800 MW spinning reserve for genset failure backup

Gas market window remains open for late nomination at +RM 0.42/mmbtu premium. Bakun reservoir at 78%, providing flexible spinning reserve without commitment.

Petronas gas nomination vs request
Bakun reservoir level (% full)
Coal stockpile days-of-supply
Genset marginal cost stack
Spinning reserve availability (MW)

Peak demand forecast (GW)

Demand stable; thunderstorm activity expected Wed-Thu suppresses cooling load.


DGA results pending lab turnaround (Mon 25 May for 7 units, Wed for remaining 4). Hold crew scheduling until full dataset received; preliminary 3 units within normal H2 band (<100 ppm).

DGA H2 evolution breaches IEEE C57.104 alert on 4 of 11 Klang Valley units

Dissolved gas analysis (Doernenburg + Rogers ratio) flags SS-0114 Cheras T2, SS-0207 Ampang T1, SS-0322 Subang T3, SS-0418 Klang T1 in caution band. Thermal fault signature (CH4/H2 < 0.1, C2H2 absent) indicates incipient low-energy partial discharge - addressable via offline diagnostics + bushing service.

SS-0207 Ampang T1: H2 = 158 ppm; thermal hot-spot 87 C on infrared 21 May

IEEE C57.104-2019 alert threshold 150 ppm H2; action level 200 ppm

Bushing tan-delta on SS-0322 Subang T3 = 0.92% vs 0.5% baseline

Issue work order WO-2026-1184 for offline diagnostics on 4 caution-band units

Schedule bushing replacement for SS-0114 Cheras T2 (lead-time stock confirmed)

Bring load transfer plan to N-1 within 4 hours of unit isolation

Premature dispatch wastes RM 280k crew mobilisation if final DGA returns normal. Equally, late dispatch risks Friday peak exposure - decision must lock Wednesday 12:00.

Thermal hot-spot temperature (infrared scan)

18 of 24 132kV-certified line teams available Tue-Wed low-demand window

Workforce planner shows Tuesday-Wednesday 02:00-06:00 low-demand pocket permits offline isolation. NIOSH heat-stress protocol limits hot-stick work to ambient <34 C - night-shift assignment mitigates. Travel & rotation across 11 sites in Klang Valley requires 6 crews x 2 nights.

Field workforce roster: 18 certified line teams; 4 on Sabah switching; 2 on leave

Tue-Wed 02:00-06:00 demand pocket: 11.2 GW (38% of peak) - safe isolation window

Wesak public holiday 1 Jun compresses post-Friday recovery window

NIOSH ambient limit 34 C for hot-stick; MET Tuesday night forecast 27 C

Crew mobilisation cost RM 280k vs avoided outage RM 4.2M

Lock Tue-Wed crew schedule by Monday 18:00

Pre-position spare bushings & DGA kits at SS-0114 Cheras

File NIOSH heat-stress mitigation plan HW-2026-0084

Crew slots reserved tentatively for 28-29 May; release deadline Tuesday 18:00 to avoid ST penalty for unannounced cancellation.

Field crew availability (certified headcount)

Spare parts lead-time (bushings, gaskets)

Worst-unit DGA H2 (ppm)

Partial DGA results; H2 within normal band <120 ppm. Awaiting lab Wed 27 May.


Sabah load-growth signal still noisy - awaiting Q2 2026 macroeconomic refresh from MIDA on palm-oil sector outlook. Defer reallocation decision to next portfolio review 5 June.

Sabah load growth halves while Pengerang Phase-3 needs 220 MW by Q3 2027

Portfolio optimisation model (mixed-integer NPV with 11-year horizon) ranks Pengerang 33kV ring strengthening as RM 6.1M higher-value than SS-Tawau-04 expansion. ST IBR-3 regulatory base permits reallocation under Rule 9.4 with 30-day notification. Sabah load served by existing SS-Tawau-02 N-1.

Pengerang Phase-3: Petronas 220 MW intake confirmed for Q3 2027 commissioning

ST IBR Rule 9.4: capex reallocation permitted with 30-day notification

Pengerang ring NPV @ WACC 7.8%: RM 14.2M; Sabah SS-Tawau-04 NPV: RM 8.1M

File ST IBR Rule 9.4 reallocation notification by 24 June

Release Pengerang 33kV tender by 8 June to hit Q3 2027 commissioning

Notify Sabah State Economic Planning Unit of 9-month deferral

Delaying reallocation by 2 weeks burns 4% of available reallocation window before Pengerang tender release deadline (8 June). Net opportunity cost RM 240k.

Pengerang Phase-3 mechanical completion date

Pengerang CCGT-3 fuel intake aligns gas dispatch with new 220 MW intake load

Petronas RAPID gas allocation for Pengerang Phase-3 finalised in March 2026 PRR-3 agreement: 96 mmscfd dedicated. Co-locating grid strengthening with CCGT-3 commissioning avoids stranded asset risk. Sabah generation (Mukah coal + Tenom Pangi hydro) remains adequate for 1.8% growth.

Pengerang RAPID PRR-3 gas allocation: 96 mmscfd dedicated to CCGT-3

Mukah coal plant capacity factor 76% - 280 MW headroom for Sabah growth

Tenom Pangi hydro: 66 MW seasonal, monsoon period adds 18 MW reserve

Pengerang CCGT-3 heat-rate 6,420 BTU/kWh vs Sabah SCGT 9,800 BTU/kWh

Stranded asset risk on Sabah capex: RM 2.8M if 1.8% growth holds 5+ years

Sync Pengerang substation energisation with CCGT-3 commissioning Q3 2027

Hold Mukah coal stockpile at 22-day reserve through 2027 contingency

Sabah capex tender already in market - re-issue cost RM 180k if reallocation locks in. Hold pre-bid clarification meeting until macro signal clarifies.

Pengerang heat-rate vs Sabah generation stack

Sabah load-growth CAGR (%)

Sabah growth trending down but Q2 macro refresh pending; defer to 5 Jun portfolio review.


Reservoir refill from Sarawak monsoon trailing; level at 76%. Hold pre-dispatch until Wednesday water-balance review.

Overnight ToU off-peak window enables hydro arbitrage against morning OCGT

ToU off-peak tariff RM 0.224/kWh applies 22:00-08:00 weekdays. Shifting Bakun hydro generation from peak to off-peak hours, paired with morning gas displacement, captures the RM 188/MWh ToU spread plus RM 125/MWh fuel-cost differential.

Overnight demand 24 May 00:00-05:00 forecast 10.8-11.2 GW (35-37% of peak)

ToU off-peak RM 0.224/kWh vs peak RM 0.524/kWh - RM 300/MWh spread

MET cloud cover overnight: 35% (clear sky favours hydro displacement opportunity)

Sarawak Energy interconnector flow capacity: 1,800 MW; scheduled 1,420 MW

Bakun dispatch lead-time 45 min (rapid follow vs CCGT 90 min)

Submit dispatch schedule to Sarawak Energy by Thursday 20:00

Hold 200 MW Bakun spinning reserve through dispatch window

Holding off saves option value RM 240k if midweek storm forecast shifts demand profile.

ToU off-peak vs peak spread (RM/MWh)
Overnight demand 5-day forecast
Sarawak interconnector available flow
Bakun dispatch ramp-rate (MW/min)
Cloud-cover overnight forecast

Bakun at 78% full; 1,200 MWh dispatch zero marginal vs OCGT RM 412/MWh

Reservoir at 78% (6,400 GWh available) provides ample headroom. Hydro marginal cost effectively zero against OCGT RM 412/MWh and CCGT RM 287/MWh. Pre-dispatch reduces Friday peak gas burn by 96 mmscfd, freeing Petronas allocation for genset start.

Reservoir capacity 43.8 km^3; 6,400 GWh dispatchable at current level

Bakun marginal cost RM 0/MWh vs OCGT RM 412/MWh (5-hour x 240 MW = RM 494k saving)

Petronas gas freed: 96 mmscfd (= 22 mmbtu/MWh x 5 hr x 240 MW reallocation)

Spillage risk at 82% reservoir; current 78% provides 4% buffer

Schedule 1,200 MWh Bakun dispatch through Sarawak interconnector 00:00-05:00

Reallocate freed Petronas gas to Pasir Gudang OCGT morning start

Bakun spillage probability minimal at current trajectory; no upside in early commitment.

Petronas gas allocation reallocation flag

Bakun reservoir level (%)

Reservoir trending up post-monsoon; hold pre-dispatch until Wed water balance.


ST petition draft v3.2 complete; pending CEO review and engagement decision. Filing window opens 26 May, closes 28 May. Early escalation enables CEO calendar booking.

ST TR-2026/04 base-tariff petition needs CEO sign-off ahead of 28 May filing

Regulatory affairs petition seeks RM 0.018/kWh base-tariff adjustment to recover allowed-revenue shortfall under IBR-3 reopener clause. Without engagement, current cycle absorbs RM 14M shortfall against approved allowed-revenue of RM 38.4 bn. CEO engagement at ST Chairman level recommended pre-filing per regulatory protocol.

ST tariff hearing TR-2026/04 scheduled 2 June 2026, 09:30 at ST Putrajaya HQ

Petition v3.2: RM 0.018/kWh adjustment vs IBR-3 allowed-revenue gap RM 14M

Filing window opens 26 May 09:00, closes 28 May 17:00 (ST Rule TR-2.6)

Regulatory legal opinion: 64% probability of full approval; 88% partial approval

Brief CEO by 25 May 17:00 with petition summary and ST chairman engagement script

Coordinate ST submission packet with regulatory affairs (4-hour assembly time)

Pre-position media holding statement for post-filing public disclosure

CEO calendar booking lead-time typically 5-7 days. Pre-positioning escalation now avoids filing-week scramble.

Allowed-revenue shortfall RM (IBR-3 cycle)

Cumulative revenue exposure (RM M)

Petition ready; CEO calendar slot required for engagement before filing window opens.


Demand building - 5-day rolling peak from 16.8 GW to 17.9 GW with MET issuing heat advisory for Selangor/KL/Putrajaya. Pre-positioning peaking gensets now avoids 90-minute cold-start risk against Friday 17:00 peak.

MET Malaysia 7-day: 36.8 C ambient peak Friday, heat-index 41 C - heat advisory active

AC penetration in KL/Selangor at 89% household saturation - 1 C above 32 C adds 280 MW

ToU peak tariff RM 0.524/kWh vs off-peak RM 0.224/kWh - no price-response headroom left

Grid Code 4.7 mandates load-shed if N-1 reserve falls below 17.8 GW floor

Issue dispatch instruction to Pasir Gudang OCGT (220 MW) and Putrajaya CCGT GT-2 (180 MW) by 14:00 Thursday

Pre-arm 142 industrial demand-response customers as N-2 backup

Notify ST Grid Operations Division per IBR Rule 12.3

If cold front arrives unexpectedly (MET 30-day probability 18%), gensets idle at RM 340k/day standby cost. Net expected value remains positive at RM 6.2M risk-adjusted.

Petronas gas nomination: 612 mmscfd against 638 mmscfd request (gap 26 mmscfd)

Bakun reservoir 78% full, 6,400 GWh available - 2,400 MW dispatch headroom

Coal stockpile (Manjung, Janamanjung): 18 days at full load - no constraint

OCGT marginal cost RM 412/MWh vs DR curtailment RM 1,840/MWh = RM 1,428/MWh saving

Petronas IFC gas allocation reviewed Wed 06:00 - no curtailment flag issued

Lock gas nomination by Thursday 18:00 deadline (Petronas IFC Rule 5.2)

Hold Bakun at 1,800 MW spinning reserve for genset failure backup

Gas nomination window closes Thursday 18:00; Petronas IFC requires 24-hour lead. Bakun reservoir at 78% (6,400 GWh available) provides fall-back if genset start fails.

Peak demand forecast (GW)

Demand trending up 1.3 GW in 6 days; MET heat advisory issued 22 May 14:00.


DGA samples drawn 21 May show H2 trending up across 11 Klang Valley transformers; 2 units approaching IEEE C57.104 alert. Scheduling crew now secures Tuesday-Wednesday window before Friday peak.

SS-0207 Ampang T1: H2 = 158 ppm; thermal hot-spot 87 C on infrared 21 May

IEEE C57.104-2019 alert threshold 150 ppm H2; action level 200 ppm

Bushing tan-delta on SS-0322 Subang T3 = 0.92% vs 0.5% baseline

Issue work order WO-2026-1184 for offline diagnostics on 4 caution-band units

Schedule bushing replacement for SS-0114 Cheras T2 (lead-time stock confirmed)

Bring load transfer plan to N-1 within 4 hours of unit isolation

Trend extrapolation places 4 units above 150 ppm by 27 May. If maintenance slips to following week, peak-week thermal load adds 12% acceleration to gas evolution per Arrhenius coefficient.

Field workforce roster: 18 certified line teams; 4 on Sabah switching; 2 on leave

Tue-Wed 02:00-06:00 demand pocket: 11.2 GW (38% of peak) - safe isolation window

Wesak public holiday 1 Jun compresses post-Friday recovery window

NIOSH ambient limit 34 C for hot-stick; MET Tuesday night forecast 27 C

Crew mobilisation cost RM 280k vs avoided outage RM 4.2M

Lock Tue-Wed crew schedule by Monday 18:00

Pre-position spare bushings & DGA kits at SS-0114 Cheras

File NIOSH heat-stress mitigation plan HW-2026-0084

Crew booking competes with scheduled Sabah ring-main switching (12 personnel). Confirmation by Tuesday 08:00 avoids double-booking penalty.

Worst-unit DGA H2 (ppm)

H2 trending +6 ppm/day across 11 transformers; SS-0114 Cheras T2 nearest 150 ppm threshold.


Confirmation of Pengerang Phase-3 mechanical completion (28 May Petronas update) firms the 220 MW intake date. Sabah load-growth trend stable below 2%. Network re-prioritisation approved for ST notification.

Pengerang Phase-3: Petronas 220 MW intake confirmed for Q3 2027 commissioning

ST IBR Rule 9.4: capex reallocation permitted with 30-day notification

Pengerang ring NPV @ WACC 7.8%: RM 14.2M; Sabah SS-Tawau-04 NPV: RM 8.1M

File ST IBR Rule 9.4 reallocation notification by 24 June

Release Pengerang 33kV tender by 8 June to hit Q3 2027 commissioning

Notify Sabah State Economic Planning Unit of 9-month deferral

ST capex reallocation requires formal IBR Rule 9.4 notification within 30 days. Failure to file by 24 June reverts approval - RM 6.1M benefit at risk.

Pengerang RAPID PRR-3 gas allocation: 96 mmscfd dedicated to CCGT-3

Mukah coal plant capacity factor 76% - 280 MW headroom for Sabah growth

Tenom Pangi hydro: 66 MW seasonal, monsoon period adds 18 MW reserve

Pengerang CCGT-3 heat-rate 6,420 BTU/kWh vs Sabah SCGT 9,800 BTU/kWh

Stranded asset risk on Sabah capex: RM 2.8M if 1.8% growth holds 5+ years

Sync Pengerang substation energisation with CCGT-3 commissioning Q3 2027

Hold Mukah coal stockpile at 22-day reserve through 2027 contingency

Pengerang substation construction lead-time 14 months. Tender must release by 8 June to hit Q3 2027 commissioning. Pengerang ring 33kV cable supply (Tenaga Cable Industries) confirmed 12-week delivery.

Sabah load-growth CAGR (%)

Pengerang Phase-3 completion firmed for Q3 2027; Sabah growth stable <2%.


Reservoir level steady at 77%; weather forecast confirms low overnight cloud-cover (suppresses AC base-load). Pre-dispatch slot recommended for Thursday overnight.

Overnight demand 24 May 00:00-05:00 forecast 10.8-11.2 GW (35-37% of peak)

ToU off-peak RM 0.224/kWh vs peak RM 0.524/kWh - RM 300/MWh spread

MET cloud cover overnight: 35% (clear sky favours hydro displacement opportunity)

Sarawak Energy interconnector flow capacity: 1,800 MW; scheduled 1,420 MW

Bakun dispatch lead-time 45 min (rapid follow vs CCGT 90 min)

Submit dispatch schedule to Sarawak Energy by Thursday 20:00

Hold 200 MW Bakun spinning reserve through dispatch window

Overnight demand uncertainty +- 220 MW; conservative dispatch of 1,000 MWh recommended to retain 200 MW spinning reserve.

Reservoir capacity 43.8 km^3; 6,400 GWh dispatchable at current level

Bakun marginal cost RM 0/MWh vs OCGT RM 412/MWh (5-hour x 240 MW = RM 494k saving)

Petronas gas freed: 96 mmscfd (= 22 mmbtu/MWh x 5 hr x 240 MW reallocation)

Spillage risk at 82% reservoir; current 78% provides 4% buffer

Schedule 1,200 MWh Bakun dispatch through Sarawak interconnector 00:00-05:00

Reallocate freed Petronas gas to Pasir Gudang OCGT morning start

Sarawak interconnector availability confirmed; no maintenance window planned through 30 May.

Bakun reservoir level (%)

Bakun reservoir steady at 77%; overnight forecast favourable for hydro pre-dispatch.


Filing deadline 7 days out; tariff submission requires CEO endorsement and ST cover-letter. Pending engagement window closes Friday 27 May.

ST tariff hearing TR-2026/04 scheduled 2 June 2026, 09:30 at ST Putrajaya HQ

Petition v3.2: RM 0.018/kWh adjustment vs IBR-3 allowed-revenue gap RM 14M

Filing window opens 26 May 09:00, closes 28 May 17:00 (ST Rule TR-2.6)

Regulatory legal opinion: 64% probability of full approval; 88% partial approval

Brief CEO by 25 May 17:00 with petition summary and ST chairman engagement script

Coordinate ST submission packet with regulatory affairs (4-hour assembly time)

Pre-position media holding statement for post-filing public disclosure

Each business day of delay raises legal-review compression risk. Regulatory affairs head needs minimum 2 days to coordinate ST submission packet.

Cumulative revenue exposure (RM M)

ST filing deadline 28 May; revenue exposure ramping to RM 12.6M without sign-off.


MET Malaysia 7-day forecast confirms heat-dome event with peak ambient 36.8 C in Klang Valley Friday; demand load forecast 18.4 GW vs 17.8 GW reserve-margin floor. Peaking gensets at Pasir Gudang and Putrajaya CCGT must be online by 16:30 to avoid rolling load-shed at 17:45 dispatch window.

MET Malaysia 7-day: 36.8 C ambient peak Friday, heat-index 41 C - heat advisory active

AC penetration in KL/Selangor at 89% household saturation - 1 C above 32 C adds 280 MW

ToU peak tariff RM 0.524/kWh vs off-peak RM 0.224/kWh - no price-response headroom left

Grid Code 4.7 mandates load-shed if N-1 reserve falls below 17.8 GW floor

Issue dispatch instruction to Pasir Gudang OCGT (220 MW) and Putrajaya CCGT GT-2 (180 MW) by 14:00 Thursday

Pre-arm 142 industrial demand-response customers as N-2 backup

Notify ST Grid Operations Division per IBR Rule 12.3

If Putrajaya CCGT GT-2 fails to synchronise by 16:30 (3.1% historical failure rate on hot-day cold starts), backup must shift to demand-response calls on 142 industrial customers - estimated RM 2.1M curtailment penalty under ST IBR Rule 14.

Petronas gas nomination: 612 mmscfd against 638 mmscfd request (gap 26 mmscfd)

Bakun reservoir 78% full, 6,400 GWh available - 2,400 MW dispatch headroom

Coal stockpile (Manjung, Janamanjung): 18 days at full load - no constraint

OCGT marginal cost RM 412/MWh vs DR curtailment RM 1,840/MWh = RM 1,428/MWh saving

Petronas IFC gas allocation reviewed Wed 06:00 - no curtailment flag issued

Lock gas nomination by Thursday 18:00 deadline (Petronas IFC Rule 5.2)

Hold Bakun at 1,800 MW spinning reserve for genset failure backup

Petronas gas nomination for Friday peak window is 612 mmscfd vs 638 mmscfd requested; Petronas IFC has flagged 14% probability of curtailment to 580 mmscfd if Bintulu LNG schedule slips. Hydro spinning reserve from Bakun must back-stop 220 MW.

Peak demand forecast (GW)

Demand crossed 18 GW threshold on 23 May; 18.4 GW forecast for 24 May 19:00 peak.


DGA results on 11 Klang Valley 132kV substations show H2 dissolved-gas above 150 ppm alert threshold on 4 units (SS-0114 Cheras, SS-0207 Ampang, SS-0322 Subang, SS-0418 Klang). Crew window Tuesday-Wednesday low-demand pocket avoids RM 4.2M outage exposure during Friday peak.

SS-0207 Ampang T1: H2 = 158 ppm; thermal hot-spot 87 C on infrared 21 May

IEEE C57.104-2019 alert threshold 150 ppm H2; action level 200 ppm

Bushing tan-delta on SS-0322 Subang T3 = 0.92% vs 0.5% baseline

Issue work order WO-2026-1184 for offline diagnostics on 4 caution-band units

Schedule bushing replacement for SS-0114 Cheras T2 (lead-time stock confirmed)

Bring load transfer plan to N-1 within 4 hours of unit isolation

If SS-0114 Cheras T2 (H2 = 164 ppm) is not isolated by Wednesday, IEEE C57.104 escalation model gives 22% failure probability within 14 days. Catastrophic failure cost RM 14.8M (replacement RM 6.2M + load transfer RM 4.1M + reputation/ST penalty RM 4.5M).

Field workforce roster: 18 certified line teams; 4 on Sabah switching; 2 on leave

Tue-Wed 02:00-06:00 demand pocket: 11.2 GW (38% of peak) - safe isolation window

Wesak public holiday 1 Jun compresses post-Friday recovery window

NIOSH ambient limit 34 C for hot-stick; MET Tuesday night forecast 27 C

Crew mobilisation cost RM 280k vs avoided outage RM 4.2M

Lock Tue-Wed crew schedule by Monday 18:00

Pre-position spare bushings & DGA kits at SS-0114 Cheras

File NIOSH heat-stress mitigation plan HW-2026-0084

Field crew availability: 18 of 24 line teams certified for 132kV hot-stick work. Public holiday (Wesak) on 1 June compresses window. NIOSH safety stand-down required if ambient >34 C - 35% probability per MET.

Worst-unit DGA H2 (ppm)

H2 ppm breached 150 ppm IEEE C57.104 alert on 22 May; 4 transformers now in caution band.


Sabah grid load growth re-forecast at 1.8%/year (vs original 3.4%) following Lahad Datu industrial slowdown; meanwhile Pengerang petrochemical Phase-3 expansion requires 220 MW additional intake by Q3 2027. Reallocating RM 6.1M from SS-Tawau-04 capex to Pengerang 33kV ring strengthening is NPV-positive at 11.2% IRR.

Pengerang Phase-3: Petronas 220 MW intake confirmed for Q3 2027 commissioning

ST IBR Rule 9.4: capex reallocation permitted with 30-day notification

Pengerang ring NPV @ WACC 7.8%: RM 14.2M; Sabah SS-Tawau-04 NPV: RM 8.1M

File ST IBR Rule 9.4 reallocation notification by 24 June

Release Pengerang 33kV tender by 8 June to hit Q3 2027 commissioning

Notify Sabah State Economic Planning Unit of 9-month deferral

If Lahad Datu palm-oil mill consortium revives stalled biodiesel plant (16% probability per Petronas IFC market intel), Sabah load could revert to 2.6% growth - reversal cost RM 1.4M for 9-month delay vs RM 6.1M reallocation gain. Risk-adjusted NPV remains positive at RM 4.7M.

Pengerang RAPID PRR-3 gas allocation: 96 mmscfd dedicated to CCGT-3

Mukah coal plant capacity factor 76% - 280 MW headroom for Sabah growth

Tenom Pangi hydro: 66 MW seasonal, monsoon period adds 18 MW reserve

Pengerang CCGT-3 heat-rate 6,420 BTU/kWh vs Sabah SCGT 9,800 BTU/kWh

Stranded asset risk on Sabah capex: RM 2.8M if 1.8% growth holds 5+ years

Sync Pengerang substation energisation with CCGT-3 commissioning Q3 2027

Hold Mukah coal stockpile at 22-day reserve through 2027 contingency

Pengerang gas-fired CCGT-3 (440 MW) commissioning slips 4 months would defer the demand trigger. Petronas project schedule review on 2 June will confirm Phase-3 mechanical completion date.

Sabah load-growth CAGR (%)

Sabah load growth re-forecast revised down to 1.8%/year; Pengerang demand confirmed +220 MW.


Overnight low-demand window (00:00-05:00 Friday) priced at RM 0.224/kWh off-peak; pre-dispatching Bakun 1,200 MWh shifts gas-fired Pasir Gudang OCGT (RM 412/MWh) to morning peak. Net fuel saving RM 1.8M.

Overnight demand 24 May 00:00-05:00 forecast 10.8-11.2 GW (35-37% of peak)

ToU off-peak RM 0.224/kWh vs peak RM 0.524/kWh - RM 300/MWh spread

MET cloud cover overnight: 35% (clear sky favours hydro displacement opportunity)

Sarawak Energy interconnector flow capacity: 1,800 MW; scheduled 1,420 MW

Bakun dispatch lead-time 45 min (rapid follow vs CCGT 90 min)

Submit dispatch schedule to Sarawak Energy by Thursday 20:00

Hold 200 MW Bakun spinning reserve through dispatch window

If overnight demand exceeds 11.5 GW (8% probability based on MET cloud-cover forecast), Bakun headroom eaten before peak window. Trigger reset at 04:30 if demand >11.3 GW.

Reservoir capacity 43.8 km^3; 6,400 GWh dispatchable at current level

Bakun marginal cost RM 0/MWh vs OCGT RM 412/MWh (5-hour x 240 MW = RM 494k saving)

Petronas gas freed: 96 mmscfd (= 22 mmbtu/MWh x 5 hr x 240 MW reallocation)

Spillage risk at 82% reservoir; current 78% provides 4% buffer

Schedule 1,200 MWh Bakun dispatch through Sarawak interconnector 00:00-05:00

Reallocate freed Petronas gas to Pasir Gudang OCGT morning start

Bakun reservoir at 78% - sufficient headroom for 1,200 MWh dispatch without spillage risk. Sarawak Energy interconnector limit 1,800 MW; current scheduled 1,420 MW.

Bakun reservoir level (%)

Bakun reservoir at 78% full; pre-dispatch slot opens 24 May overnight.


ST tariff hearing TR-2026/04 scheduled 2 June; petition currently awaiting CEO sign-off on RM 0.018/kWh base-tariff adjustment. Failure to file by 28 May forfeits Q3 review window - RM 14M revenue exposure across IBR-3 cycle.

ST tariff hearing TR-2026/04 scheduled 2 June 2026, 09:30 at ST Putrajaya HQ

Petition v3.2: RM 0.018/kWh adjustment vs IBR-3 allowed-revenue gap RM 14M

Filing window opens 26 May 09:00, closes 28 May 17:00 (ST Rule TR-2.6)

Regulatory legal opinion: 64% probability of full approval; 88% partial approval

Brief CEO by 25 May 17:00 with petition summary and ST chairman engagement script

Coordinate ST submission packet with regulatory affairs (4-hour assembly time)

Pre-position media holding statement for post-filing public disclosure

If CEO defers engagement beyond 27 May 18:00, ST procedural rule TR-2.6 closes filing window. Recovery only via supplementary petition in Q4 - 6-month revenue delay. Probability of full TR-2026/04 approval at requested level: 64% per regulatory legal opinion.

Cumulative revenue exposure (RM M)

Revenue exposure expanding as ST filing deadline (28 May) approaches; CEO sign-off required.